The sting of last week’s elections is surely wearing off for President Barack Obama. But the consequences to his agenda won’t fade so quickly.
Why? In short because once members of Congress get to Washington, D.C., they tend to want to stay, which means knowing which way the political winds are blowing. Last week Republicans Bob McDonnell and Chris Christie were elected governor of Virginia and traditional Democratic stronghold New Jersey, respectively — both states Obama carried just 12 months ago.
With independent voters saying they were fed up with government spending, these losses are a bad omen for Obama’s self-proclaimed ambition to “fundamentally change America.”
Three pieces of legislation critical to this transformation are “Obamacare,” “cap-and-trade” and “card check.” The noble aims of the first two are matched only by the enormous costs and government expansion required, while the third is blatant political patronage designed to prop up unions.
Boiled down, Obamacare is meant to ensure all Americans have health insurance. The downside is that in trying to help the uninsured, the government would charge premiums no private insurer could compete with. Eventually the “public” option would be the only option and government would effectively control health care.
Cap-and-trade is meant to both reduce pollution and raise money to help pay for the rest of Obama’s agenda. It would set up a system of emissions credits companies would have to buy to pollute.
This basically is a corporate energy tax. Companies would respond by passing the cost on to consumers — effectively a hidden tax — or outsourcing operations altogether.
Meanwhile, China has no interest in emissions reduction treaties, but according to the New York Times, has more coal-fired power plants than the U.S., Europe and Japan combined and opens a new one each month.
Finally, card check would change how employees vote on whether to unionize. Secret ballots that protect employees from pressure and intimidation would be replaced with a petition. If signed by more than half its employees, a company would be unionized.
Besides opening employees up to intimidation, “card check” would allow 49 employees out of a company of 100 to be forced to unionize against their will. The bill’s ironic official name: “The Employee Free Choice Act.”
After the 2008 election, consensus among political pundits was that the country had entered a new era; one friendlier to big government. Obama’s election wasn’t thanks to public fury toward former President George W. Bush, nor the fortuitous timing that made Obama’s message of change exactly what millions of Americans wanted to hear.
On the contrary, Americans were ready for Uncle Sam to take over health care, stop the oceans from rising, end partisan politics and do it all without raising taxes a cent for 95 percent of us. It was so exciting, MSNBC‘s Chris Matthews, “felt this thrill going up (his) leg!”
Last week’s elections are the strongest evidence yet that this conclusion was seriously mistaken. It’s increasingly clear the United States retains deep reservations about the high-tax, high-service government model common in Europe. In former President Ronald Reagan’s words, “Government isn’t the answer to our problems; government is the problem.”
For Democrats in districts that lean Republican, last week’s results are especially alarming: forty-nine House Democrats from districts Republican Presidential nominee John McCain won last year. Two Senate Democrats seeking re-election next year, Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas and Byron Dorgan of North Dakota, represent states McCain carried, putting them in a similar position.
Further, unlike in 2006 and 2008, declaring “George W. Bush is evil and I’m not him” at every opportunity apparently won’t be enough to win election in 2010. Democrats Creigh Deeds and Jon Corzine tried that in Virginia and New Jersey to no avail.
In coming months, many Congressional Democrat members will face a choice. They could support Obama’s goals regardless of political consequence. More likely, they’ll act like politicians and protect their careers at all costs.
By no means is all lost for Obama. Given his charisma, if Obama moderates his goals, a generally successful presidency is still within his reach. However, the chance to transform the United States into a statist utopia has likely — hopefully — passed.
