If you had asked me about a year and a half ago the question; who was going to win the following presidential election, I would have told you Trump would no questions asked. However, events that occurred in the last year have caused many people like myself, to retract their statement about a landslide election.
My previous prediction about Trump winning has absolutely nothing to do with my personal political thoughts or opinion. It had more to do with how presidential reelections have gone historically.
From strictly an observational standpoint, current presidents tended to get reelected for their second term, given that there was no scandal, fiasco or other obvious crisis linked directly to their administration. Generally, Americans tend to reelect presidents for a second term because they were comfortable.
They would rather reelect the person that they already knew could at least handle to position and have at least kept their way of life preserved in a majority capacity. Interestingly, presidents historically also have a trend of losing great popularity after the “honeymoon” phase of their term and slowly declining over their term.
Approve or disapprove over Trump, you must see the facts here; he has shaken everything up in our typical political system. He seems to be an anomaly of sorts. Not just speaking on his personality, his past and his voice amongst other government officials, he has shaken up how the system usually goes.
His approval rating in the polls speaks for itself, and while it has slightly dipped and gone up in the past, and has mostly stagnated around the 55 percent area (at the time of this article it is hovering at 53.7 percent).
His following has stayed strong through the test of time and even with controversy surrounding his response to the Black Lives Matter protests earlier this year, his questionable COVID-19 response and his administration’s current international relationships; his approval rating has never tanked like most presidents before him.
With that said, I truly cannot say the victor of this election is clear any longer. It is likely because of previously mentioned controversy’s and other major disapprovals, that we are seeing a mass voter turnout this year.
While it is important to note that typically there is a larger voter turnout for the opposing party of the current administration when it comes time for reelection, this is making history for the amount of voting is happening in Texas alone.
Of course, not all these votes are blue, Trump’s avid supporters who have kept him up all these years were all very likely to vote or register to vote for him. However, more votes in, general, leave more up to chance and more up to a much more accurate representation of the United States population.
When Biden won the Democratic nominee, many left voters scoffed and thought to themselves, well, looks like Trump is going to win again, assuming he would be washed out easily. Nowadays, you don’t hear that kind of talk.
People’s mindset seems to have shifted ever so slightly in the past months, ironically, having very little to do with Biden himself. This election cycle will be one for the history books with all the records and pretenses it has shattered wide open. In my opinion there is no telling what will happen next week, and it will be too close to call.